Family Research – English, Scottish and Irish Genealogy


Projected Population of Scotland (2003 Based)

The Government Actuary, in consultation with, and at the request of, the Registrars General, prepares the population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries. This note presents the main results of the latest, 2003-based, projection for Scotland, and outlines the fertility, mortality and migration assumptions used in its preparation.

Summary of results
The results of this new set of projections, summarised in Table 1, show the total population of Scotland falling steadily from 5.06 million in 2003 to 4.88 million by 2028. Longer term projections for up to 40 years ahead, also produced by the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD), show a slightly faster decline after 2028 to 4.5 million in 2043. Although the trend of a slowly falling population is still the same as the previous 2002-based projection, the 2003-based projection indicates that this fall in population will take place from 2005 onwards.

For more information go to the link on the rhs

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